| Share Buybacks - Truth and Hype |
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Unlike years past when bonuses and dividends were the rave on Dalal
Street, company share repurchases, allowed in the budget of 1997, are en vogue today.
World over too this is a universally popular practice, with stalwarts like Coke, Intel,
Chrysler etc. all having done this exercise very successfully. Share buybacks are a way to
compensate shareholders with a company's excess cash as well as to enhance shareholder
value in many ways.
So why do companies increasingly show a preference for share buybacks and how does it
really enhance share holder value. One of the reasons companies are opting for share
repurchases over dividends is that shareholders often prefer capital gains over the
current income that comes from dividends. In addition, dividends are double taxed since
all profits a company earns are taxed at the corporate level. If a company wishes to pay
out some of its profits in the form of a dividend, the shareholders also have an income
tax liability. In this type of environment, it makes sense to go in for share repurchase
activity.
Share repurchases by their very nature decrease the number of shares outstanding. Having
fewer shares outstanding not only increases the relative percentage ownership of the
remaining shareholders, but also the percentage claim on the company's profits. Said
another way, buying back shares increases the earnings per share (EPS) assuming that net
income is at least steady. If a company can manage to increase earnings at the same time
it is retiring shares, the growth in EPS is compounded.
If a stock's price is its market-assigned price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio multiplied by the
earnings per share, it only makes sense that an increase in the EPS would translate to an
increased price given a steady P/E multiple. Mathematically, it looks like this:
Stock Price = EPS * P/E Ratio
The above equation helps to explain a stock's valuation when thinking about many other
valuation topics, not just share buybacks. In any case, if you increase the right side of
the equation, the left side (the stock price) will also appreciate.
Another way to look at why share buybacks tend to increase shareholder value is by
thinking about the equilibrium between supply and demand for any given stock. If demand
remains constant and the supply (number of shares outstanding) decreases, prices in a free
market tend to rise. This is nothing more than simple economics.
Reducing excess cash can also have a dramatic affect on some important efficiency metrics
that many investors look at. Still assuming that a company's net income remains constant
over time, share buybacks also tend to increase both a company's Return on Assets (ROA)
and Return on Equity (ROE).
Share repurchases, unfortunately, are not always successful. One of the worst times a
company can buy back shares is when the company's core business is taking a hit. When
investors start selling a stock down because of a deterioration in the fundamental health
of a company, many times executives (who more times than not own stock options) are
enticed by the temporary positive effects that share buybacks may yield. But if the
company's future fortunes are truly coming into question, buying back shares often just
wastes valuable cash that may be needed to shore up the business down the road. In other
words, share buybacks done poorly can exacerbate a bad situation.
From the investors point of view they should look on share repurchases with an inquisitive
eye. The idea is to figure out the "why" behind this there are many
reasons a company may want to go in for a share buyback - to help the sagging share price,
in times when the market is weak, to indicate that it feels that the shares are
intrinsically undervalued by the market and should have higher valuations, to use up its
surplus cash effectively. For instance when a company with a high amount of debt goes in
for a share repurchase. In this case, buying shares back represents nothing more than an
increase in a company's leverage, not really a return of excess cash. Almost by definition
a leveraged company's cash is not excess. And perhaps it would be better for debt loaded
companies to pay down debt rather than go in for a share buyback.
However a share buyback can be a very
good indicator that management has its priorities in place. If a company cannot generate a
return on investment on new projects that shareholders could receive from a buyback of
shares, then the choice between new investments and the buyback would seem to be pretty
clear. However, the benefits of a share buyback depend upon the situation at hand -- the
company's growth opportunities and its cost of capital and sources of funding, among other
things.
If the objective to revive the sagging
stock markets for one and to ward off any takeover attempts by increasing the promoter
holding in the Indian companies then the company is merely playing the maths game-i.e. to
shore up the EPS and thus the PE. However PE is not just a mathematical calculation and a
major determinant of P/E ratio is the intangibles in the company like intellectual assets,
brands, good quality of management etc. Since it is only the intangibles which ensure
sustained growth for a company, they should be spending their time trying to improve the
quality of their intangible assets, if they have any.
The reason behind the buyback defines the
effect that this action has on the share price. Obviously the company repurchasing the
shares will have to pay a premium over the market price to entice holders to sell. If the
buyback is simply a minor adjustment to keep the firm's capital structure in line with
stated policy, then the effect is likely to be minimal. Investors already expect the
company to make these adjustments from time to time, so the announcement is usually no
surprise. In case a company buys back shares outright using its hoard of cash reserves
then this is viewed as a bullish signal. The argument is that the firm sees good things
happening inside the company that aren't fully reflected in the market price of the stock,
suggesting that the shares are a bargain.
So as is with all your investment decisions this decision
as to whether to sell back or not, should be taken after careful thought and analysis.
Investors will serve themselves well if they know why repurchases work and can spot the
difference between what is a bona fide return of capital to them and what is merely a
company playing games and leveraging up.
Aru Srivastava
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