| How Risky are your Investments |
Economic Risk: The prices of securities
may fluctuate because the expectation about the national economy, whether the economy as a
whole is slowing or growing. It also means how an economy is doing compared to other
competing economies.
Market risk:The possibility that the stock or bond markets will decline
over short or extended periods. The stock market tends to be cyclical, with periods
when stock prices generally rise and periods when stock prices generally decline. Bond
prices are linked to prevailing interest rates in the economy. As interest rates rise,
bond prices fall. Conversely, when rates fall, bond prices rise. The price of a security
may also be affected because of the overall sentiment in the market. Sentiment means how
most people in the market feel.
Inflation Risk: The possibility that you may not earn enough on your
money to keep up with inflation and preserve the purchasing power of your savings.
Interest Rate Risk: Changes in interest rate (which occur due to change
in supply and demand for money) influence security prices. In case of fixed income
securities, the impact is direct. If interest rate rises, price falls and vice-a-versa.
Fall in interest rates may benefit share prices because cost of funds to companies may
move down, hence their profit may go up.
Credit Risk: The risk of failure on part of a borrower to meet interest
and principal amount obligations.
Regulatory risk: Pries of securities may
be affected due to changes in law, procedures, import export policy etc.
Industry risk: A particular industry may be affected due to certain
developments peculiar to that industry.
Technology Risk: Discovery of new processes or radical change in
technology used by certain companies may affect prices of shares of that company. This is
also known as risk of obsolescence.
Environmental Risk: Certain companies may be adversely affected because
of certain restrictions imposed on them by the authorities for protection of the
environment.
Event Risk: Some times an event such as an accident or an earthquake may
influence prices of securities because the event may cripple the operations of a company
temporarily or permanently.
Country risk: A country in financial difficulty may impose restrictions
on trade and capital flows affecting investments made in that country.
Management risk: An intangible but very important risk which deals with
the quality of the management at the helm which steers the future performance of the
company. This deals with the vision, morals, conduct and policies of the management.
As you can fathom, from the above definitions of the types of risk, there are some risks
which can be diversified or controlled, and there are some which cannot be controlled or
diversified. For example you can choose to invest in a company where the management is of
top quality, but in event of a sudden change in government policy affecting the business
of the company, you will not be able to anticipate and therefore diversify that risk.
However well diversified, an investor cannot escape two types of risks- Market Risk and
the Inflation Risk. Given that some degree of investment risk is unavoidable, the
investor's goal becomes maintaining and ultimately increasing the returns on his or her
investments, while managing the risks.
The investment managers then, like insurance companies,
seek to cover themselves for various risks that they have identified. This they do by
spreading the investments across various assets. For example the risk associated with bank
deposits and cash is the least, as a result the returns on them are also the lowest. Next
come government paper and bonds of institutions and private companies. These are slightly
higher up in the risk ladder and so the returns are also commensurately higher. Stocks of
course are at the top of the ladder because you are exposing yourself to macro and micro
factors and so the returns are the highest.
There are two main methods of dealing with risk-asset allocation and diversification. On
the surface, asset allocation may sound very similar to diversification. Indeed, the
principles are related. Both are designed to reduce the risk in an investor's portfolio.
At its most basic, diversification means spreading one's money among several different
investments. By diversifying into a variety of alternatives, the investor can mitigate the
chances of suffering a catastrophic financial loss should one of the investments perform
poorly. Asset allocation takes this principle one step further. Asset allocation means
diversifying a portfolio not just among different investments but among different
investment classes: stocks, fixed income alternatives such as bonds, cash equivalents, and
real estate and other tangible assets.
Studies have found that, over the long run, how one's investments are allocated is more
important than the individual investments are, in determining overall performance for
diversified portfolios. It's not necessarily the specific investments chosen for a
portfolio; it's the way those investments are allocated that may make the difference in
reaching a financial goal. Furthermore, the process of selecting an appropriate investment
mix forces individuals to organize their investments and take into consideration their
particular financial needs, risk tolerance, and external factors such as inflation, taxes,
interest rates and the current economy.
The first step in asset allocation is to organize the individual's assets into four basic
categories: Stocks, Fixed income, Cash equivalents, and Real estate and other tangible
assets. The next step is to create an asset allocation model designed specifically to meet
the individual needs. Once a specific asset allocation model has been created and
implemented, quarterly reviews are a must to see that the investment portfolio is on track
and if not then what restructuring is needed.
So even if you have a conservative portfolio, don't go to sleep on it. Be active, analyze
the risks every half year or quarter and make the necessary changes.
Aru Srivastava