Weekly Forex Market Report : July 3rd - July 7th

The week saw a mixed trend as far as the rupee movements are concerned.  In the first half, rupee was steady, trading in a very narrow range.  Towards the end of the week, the SBI first purchased dollars which caused the rupee to fall and the very next day it was again into action, this time selling dollars which saw the rupee moving up. The graphs and the detailed reports follow:

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Friday, July 7

The rupee rallied against the USD amid huge dollar sales by the SBI and closed sharply higher at 44.70/71.  The rupee opened at 44.75/76 but immediately started moving up when the SBI came to the market and sold dollars and the rupee touched an intra day high of 44.68/69.  But genuine demand towards the end of the day brought it down.  Dealers were of the view that the SBI was into action at the behest of the RBI indicating that the RBI is not going to let rupee fall.

Thursday, July 6

The rupee closed sharply down, losing 6 paise against the USD on Thursday because of huge dollar buying by the SBI.  The rupee opened the day unchanged from its previous close but then it began to slide when the SBI came to the market and bought dollars. Dealers were of the view the buying from the SBI seemed to be genuine demand on behalf of its clients and it was not buying on behalf of the RBI.  The rupee is now just a shade away from its all time low closing level of 44.76/78 which it touched on June 9.  In the forwards market, the premium again went up due to weakened rupee to close at 3.46% sharply higher than its previous close of 3.13%.

Wednesday, July 5

The rupee ended Wednesday slightly weaker at 44.68 against the USD amid demand from importers.  The rupee opened at 44.6725/6775 and was trading in a steady range throughout the day.  In early trades, there was enough supply to meet the demand but later in the afternoon huge demand from importers caused the weakness in rupee. There were few banks in the market that were buying on behalf of their clients. The dealers were expecting some good dollar inflows in the near future from the US market.  The forward premia eased down on Wednesday.

Tuesday, July 4

The rupee ended the day at 44.67/6725 barely changed from its previous close against the USD amid thin dollar demand.  There was not much of a demand from the importers as the markets in the US were closed on Tuesday due to the Independence Day.  The rupee opened at 44.67/6775 and was trading steady for the entire day.  There was a little demand which was met from within the market. So the rupee closed unchanged. There was some action in the forward segment as premiums rose due to eased call rates.

Monday, July 3

The rupee ended the day barely unchanged from Friday's close at 44.665/675.  The rupee opened the day at 44.665/6775 and traded steady throughout the day. The trading was not much in the market.  The markets will remain close in the US on Tuesday on account of Independence day celebration.  During the day, several banks bought and sold dollars but there were enough buyers and enough suppliers for whatever dollars that were demanded.  So the rupee remained more or less steady.  The forward premia moved up a bit with call rates easing and going below the 8% mark.

            

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